Ryan Sprute dot com

So I’m starting this blog back up again, this time focusing pretty much exclusively on the music industry. Also, this is going to be a lot rougher this time around - I rarely posted because I shelved most of my posts or left them in “to-edit” purgatory. This will just be a place to showcase my ideas about the future of the music industry and how to take advantage of this great upheaval.

So what will the industry look like in a few years?

-  There will be no majors

WMG and EMI (especially EMI) are NOT doing well. At all. They are ripe to merge and eventually the toxic DNA that both of these companies hold will be the end of them. I can’t say I’m too sad - I was at a music conference where a WMG rep was talking, every other word was “merch” or corporate-babble about demographics. I’m no dummy, I believe in the power of metrics, but if you are focused more on the method than the art you’ve got a big problem.

The big question is what will happen to “indies” like Sub Pop? WMG has a 50% holding share in Sub Pop, which makes them essentially a major-label subsidiary. I would be sad to see such a prestigious and important label go under, but my gut tells me they will land on their feet. After all, Sub Pop’s motto is “going out of business for the last 20 years”. Megan Jasper is a smart cookie, I’m assuming she’s not the only one. However, if they keep talking about “legacy” like it means anything to anyone besides other industry professionals and young bands wanting to get signed (ahem), it’s gonna hurt them.

- Artists will regain control over IP

The centuries-long injustice of corporations owning intellectual property will soon coming to an end. In Britain they’ve recently started a label that allows artists to own their own copyrights. This IS the future of record labels, I am absolutely certain of it. There are simply too many options for artists for them to foolishly let go of their most valuable card. Actually, it’s not even foolishness, there simply hasn’t been any other way before now.

The internet has allowed artists to directly connect with fans in a way unlike any other time in history. This has allowed the rise of the musical middle-class, who may never be rockstar-rich, they will be able to live comfortably while making their art on their terms.

That’s it for right now, but stay tuned for more.

My music industry predictions for 2009, hopefully at least one will come true so I don’t get totally embarrassed and feel so STUPID. Gawd. Anyway:

- Cloud-based music services will grow in popularity, and Songbird will rise as a serious contender to iTunes. Subscription services will also rise, hopefully in concert venues as well. However, major labels will fail to innovate and see their margins shrink even more. Apple will also lose the near-monopoly they have on digitized music sales.

- Sub Pop will gain a boost thanks to the popularity of Fleet Foxes, but unfortunately Portland will become even more competitive and maybe even surpass the Seattle music scene. Fuck Portland. Thanks a lot, Greg Nickels.

- Ticketmaster emerges as a competitor to Live Nation, with 360 deals and major artists on board.

- Two majors will merge to become one even shittier company, my guess is EMI and WMG.

- Grizzly Bear will blow up, and the indie/art rock scene in New York and similar bands will steadily gain more mainstream exposure. My band will not.